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Just how good are we expecting Jaycee Horn to be?
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By CarolinaLivin · Posted
Top 25 performance based pay in #NFL #Panthers DB Nick Scott made an extra $1.26 million from last year’s campaign, because of the NFL’s Performance-Based Pay program, the league announced today. It was the fourth-highest payout from the program. https://x.com/mike_e_kaye/status/2033598538848862446?s=46 -
BPA!!! Wouldn't life be great if it were that simple? Need??? To some degree. I realize that we like life simple: Instant oatmeal. self-stick envelopes. I get it. BPA people: Go back and look at teams' needs in prior drafts--even when they scream BPA!, they end up drafting for need. I guess you should say, "BPA4U" (Best Player Available for Us). There are many variables. You should know the skill sets for your system. You should understand your locker room and gauge character. In my view, another consideration should play into your decision of how you rate a player to be the "best" and the cost of meeting your overall needs. All needs are not equal. The talent pool drops off and dries up at different points for different positions. Each draft is unique. We have inflation for some positions in free agency, yet the rookie pay scale is based on a formula that is not determined by position or player evaluations: The 1st overall pick receives the highest salary, with each subsequent pick earning less, regardless of position. Therefore, if you have seven needs, and three are at positions that pay veterans a ton of money--you should draft those players over those who play positions that would not save you much money. You have to consider the savings and what that means to the cap as a whole--not just focus on BPA or need. These numbers are based on the average salary of all players and then only the starters by position: Now take a look at what the players make based on the position they are drafted: Sorry they did this in pink. So let's say the Jets think Sadiq is the BPA on their board with the second pick. He meets their biggest need, aside from QB, but there are no QBs close to checking the BPA box. Are you going to pay a rookie TE $13m per year for 4 years ($52m guaranteed)? According to the chart above, a STARTING TE costs half that. So Need and BPA are not the only factors (this was an example only). It makes more sense to draft, especially in the first round, a QB, edge, WR, OT, or DT if they are one of your needs and one of the BPAs. At worst you are getting close to market value if they start. Looking at the Panthers needs, expected BPAs at #19, and cost vs. what a starting-level free agent makes, we are spending about $5m per year. Many of us want to draft a S there--if the rookie starts, we'd save about $1.7m per year. The difference would add a bottom-of-the-roster depth player. If we drafted a LB, for example, the difference is $1.4m. I see our needs (right now) as follows: S, ILB Will, OT, C, TE, and DT. Of those needs, a veteran starter at OT or DT would save us the most. For example, an OT veteran who starts averages $13m. We'd get the player for 4 years (not including the 5th year option for this) and we'd save $8m per year. To be honest, Walker is an average OT and we got him for a bargain at $10m. So if we draft an OT, we not only have a starter for next year (regardless of Ickey), we have 2 starting-level LTs on the roster NOW for $15m. If the OT we draft works out and we do not re-sign Walker, we save $8m x 3 years--$24m. So the BPA model might be the code you live or die by, but I ask it this way: Would you rather have a Safety and $1.4m in cap room savings or an OT and $8m per year cap savings? Both are needs. Both would be rated in the middle of the draft's first round. The OT and the $8m in savings would get you a starting OT AND the $8m would get you a starting free agency safety, if you think about it. If you step back and see the big picture, use the rookie scale to your advantage, you can improve your roster beyond merely taking the BPA, whatever that means. Looking at the Panther's draft, if they draft OT in round 1, DT in round 2, and both start, they could save about $16m of cap space per year when compared to what average veteran free agents would cost. LB, C, TE, and S can come later, if you follow this blueprint. I am not saying that I would draft based solely on this concept, but I am saying that it would be a variable--a big one. -
nick just got a bonus- extra 1,262,216, dang that's a nice bag...
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