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Restocking with just Pick #39?

chknwing

By chknwing,
in Carolina Panthers

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Tbe said:

The odds of a 2nd rounder to develop into a starter is 33%. A high 2nd is more like 40%.

The odds of a 3rd drops to 16%.

The math doesn’t favor those trades.

Curious to know where you are getting those numbers from?  Have always been interested in the real numbers behind drafting. 

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SmokinwithWilly Grand Master

SmokinwithWilly

Posted
Posted

We have a lot of holes on the roster and the 2 positions that seem to have the most success in the 2nd are OL, specifically IOL, and LB. We've taken care of 2 of those IOL positions in FA with C still being a pressing need. BY, or whoever is passing the ball if we have a real competition in camp, needs someone to catch the damn ball. 

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Tbe Grand Master

Tbe

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Curious to know where you are getting those numbers from?  Have always been interested in the real numbers behind drafting. 


Some browns fan crunched the numbers on 20 years of draft data. NFL wide…not browns specific.

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/Board/105323/Contents/odds-of-becoming-a-quality-player-in-the-nfl-by-draft-round-211678773/#:~:text=1st round - about 50% of,3rd round - about 16%.


I’ve seen it broken down by position too. Some positions have higher success rates than others.

This is the only source I can find right now.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

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pantherdad Rising Star

pantherdad

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Tbe said:

1st round - about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round developed into solid NFL starters.

2nd round - about 33% of players drafted in the 2nd round developed into solid NFL starter. From here, it dropped by 50% per round.

3rd round - about 16%.

4th round - about 8%.

5th round - about 4-5%.

6th round - about 2%.

7th round - about 1-2%.

Tom Brady defied the odds lol

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carpanfan96 Grand Master

carpanfan96

Posted
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47 minutes ago, Tbe said:


Some browns fan crunched the numbers on 20 years of draft data. NFL wide…not browns specific.

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/Board/105323/Contents/odds-of-becoming-a-quality-player-in-the-nfl-by-draft-round-211678773/#:~:text=1st round - about 50% of,3rd round - about 16%.


I’ve seen it broken down by position too. Some positions have higher success rates than others.

This is the only source I can find right now.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Here’s a few more that have good information. 
 

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2017/4/12/15274148/most-nfl-draft-picks-are-busts
 

https://www.the33rdteam.com/the-hidden-reality-of-draft-value-part-1/
 

https://www.the33rdteam.com/assessing-first-round-hit-rate-at-every-nfl-position/

 

i had a few posts a few years back breaking it down in detail somewhere on the site. lol

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top dawg Grand Master

top dawg

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Tbe said:

The odds of a 2nd rounder to develop into a starter is 33%. A high 2nd is more like 40%.

The odds of a 3rd drops to 16%.

The math doesn’t favor those trades.

Where are you getting this? I've looked over information that seems to be always dated (I guess because the sample rate has to be over time), and 33 percent seems extremely low from what I've read. 

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Carolina Cajun Mentor

Carolina Cajun

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, chknwing said:

carolina doesnt draft well, they need more shots to try and hit on something

In fairness, Fitterer and Hurney dont draft well, gonna see what morgan does and hope its better than what weve had.  I think itll be fine as long as tepper keeps his dick fingers out of the situation.

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