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What's the worst case scenario with Sam Darnold this year?


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If he plays mediocre (as in middle of the pack) that would be a significant increase from last year. I think that would be reasonable and should be a sign he is coachable and will get better.

As @Khyber53posted, the worst case would be the team playing well in spit of Darnold. That would mean we would be unloading a lot of assets to try to find our next QB the following offseason…

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10 hours ago, hepcat said:

The fact they had Justin Fields fall to them and they didn’t pick him is still mind numbing. The only thing Sam Darnold has accomplished in the NFL is missing half a season with mono. 

He’s never missed more than 4 games and that was last season.  He played 14/14/12 games in 18/19/20.

But hey, why let facts ruin a good narrative?

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7 hours ago, bigskypanthersguy said:

I'm worried he's going to be bad but I'm trying to be more optimistic this year.

Hearing that he hears ghosts really isn't a good sign though and makes choosing him inexplicable, imo, especially at the cost of a second rounder.

Seeing ghosts isn't what people think it means. It doesn't mean he's scared. It doesn't mean he's afraid of the defense. The phrase seeing ghosts means he's seeing things that aren't there, as in, he got confused by the defense of arguably the greatest coach of all time. 

So it's something that can be fixed with more film study and experience. 

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10 hours ago, Tbe said:

Yep, that is the worst case. Plays well enough to get another year, but isn’t good enough to ever be great.

frankly, I think this is a likely outcome.

Such is QB purgatory.

yep, he'd have to be pretty bad to get us a high draft pick next year, defense is going to keep us in a lot of games

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10 minutes ago, Mother Grabber said:

worst case is that he gets hurt early, maybe even in camp, and we don’t know what we have for another year.

I think this is my second worst case. Worst case IMHO is he looks so bad that everyone and their mother knows we need a QB (hurts in draft without a 2nd) and we again need to give up a ton of capital on a hope. Forget Watson coming cheap for us. Also, it means we have wasted $55M in cap space for two bad QBs and probably will have a tough time keeping all of Burns, Moore, Brown and Chinn as we sink more into QBs.

In terms of the draft, it’s tough to say if he bombs do we want to be 1-16 or do we want 7-10 in spite of crappy QB play. The latter means maybe we are like 2020 Tampa and the former means we are still a bunch of pieces away. The only issue with the latter is Tom Brady isn’t available and we would be kicking ourselves for letting Fields go as we might not have a chance.

If he looks mediocre then maybe he still has some trade value and we can at least see if Arnold, Tremble, Marshall and Smith make Anderson expendable. We can also get a better feel for the OL instead of wondering if Darnold is just running into sacks where the OL was OK. Basically, we can keep the rebuild going on offense and trade Darnold or keep as an OK backup way cheaper.

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Best case scenario is obviously he plays well and looks like he’s still got more upside as he gets more comfortable and we add better OL. We need all the assets and cap that we can get.

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worst case scenario is the most likely IMO. 

Panthers get to about 7ish wins.  Which we likely would have done last year too with a healthy CMC for 16 games then too.   Sam remains what he has been to date in the NFL.  Just a very average QB.  Not horrible.  Not actually good. 

and Carolina is stuck in no man's land in terms of solving the QB situation.   Forced to role with Darnold again the next year knowing he isn't the answer.  Sets up Rhule to draft "his" QB in year 3.   Which is just a weird space to have a your new HC finally bringing in a young body to groom in year 3. 

 

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1 hour ago, Mother Grabber said:

worst case is that he gets hurt early, maybe even in camp, and we don’t know what we have for another year.

I think this is the worst case. 

We went through that scenario with Cam coming off the injury in 2019.  We needed to see if he had regained his health/throwing velocity before committing to another contract.  Then a different injury hit and that became impossible, at least on the timeframe the team had.

No injury this time around, but still an evaluation.  Darnold going down early would make that next to impossible.

As somebody said, Darnold playing well enough to for us to flirt with .500 is not a bad scenario, assuming he shows enough that coaching staff concludes he is on an upward trend and has not yet approached his ceiling.  It was pretty obvious with TB that the staff saw what they believed was his ceiling.

Darnold is not really any different than a newly-drafted QB, except that he has a few years of seeing the speed of the NFL game first hand.  A lot of people underestimate how different that is.  That should allow a quicker evaluation.......assuming he does not get hurt early.  Given he is coming to the end of his rookie deal, the evaluation has to be made quickly.  But, I am not sure that does not go on with any young QB these days.  More is expected sooner, and that is why the hit rate for even serviceable NFL QBs appears to have gone down.

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12 hours ago, hepcat said:

The fact they had Justin Fields fall to them and they didn’t pick him is still mind numbing. The only thing Sam Darnold has accomplished in the NFL is missing half a season with mono. 

If Fields is so good, how come the only team that wanted him is the Bears? Remember, they thought Trubiskey was good, too.

Edited by cookinbrak
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2 hours ago, Mother Grabber said:

worst case is that he gets hurt early, maybe even in camp, and we don’t know what we have for another year.

Yup. Exactly this. Purgatory of a middle of the road performance is bad. Not even getting to see him this year and basically leaving us paralyzed for another year is the absolute worst case.

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